Updated December 06, 2015 19:24:00

Map: Australia

One more batch of solid jobs figure from the US over the weekend and a sturdy rebound on Wall Street must give the Australian industry a positive start off to the week.

The essential Wall Street indices rallied more than 2 per cent on the news that 211,000 new jobs had been created, although October’s blockbuster 271,000 figure was revised up to 298,000.

The marketplace is now taking it as a lay down misere the Fed will start raising rates on December 16.

Certainly failure to provide the now anticipated hike could lead to all sorts of market ugliness.

One of the key themes of final week — the disappointment with the European Central Bank’s smaller than anticipated stimulus package — may have been trumped by the US and consequently shifted a bit additional back into the market’s ephemeral attention.

However, offered the all round fractiousness of international markets, volatility will still make investing a white-knuckle game for some time however.

Information flow slows

After last week’s stream of figures, the tap gets tightened this week.

Australian jobs and China offer the greatest interest for the neighborhood industry.

October’s labour force figure created an extraordinary — some would say unbelievable — 60,000 or so new jobs, which drove unemployment back down to 5.9 per cent.

A repeat in November’s figure (Thursday) would be impressive but extremely unlikely.

Certainly it is not uncommon for unusually big moves either way to be reversed in subsequent months.

The truth that third quarter GDP growth to a large extent was propped up by mining exports — although the domestic economy was weak — is hardly a precursor to another spurt in jobs development.

The marketplace is forecasting a fall of 20,000 in November, which would leave the all round trend closer to job creation rattling along at a sturdy 15,000 a month.

That need to also hold unemployment at about six per cent.

A point of interest may nicely be Western Australia where the finish of the mining boom has observed unemployment rise at a fast price.

At six.4 per cent, Western Australia’s unemployment price is now larger than all other states for the very first time because the pre-boom days of 2004.

For the massive miners though it does have the benefit of driving down labour costs, with wage growth back at two-decade lows.

Housing finance in the other domestic figure of note this week, though as RBA deputy governor Phillip Lowe lately pointed out, the banks are coughing up pretty dodgy data on this front.

The ranks of investors who the banks have suddenly realised are owner occupiers — and not investors — are probably to continue to grow.

The consensus get in touch with is a modest 1 per cent decline in all round approvals, which would still leave approvals properly above their long-term average.


China watchers and the resources businesses are up for an additional large week, with the spills much more most likely to outnumber the thrills.

Balance of trade (Tuesday) is the 1st out the blocks and whilst surplus will again be huge — about $ US55 billion in forecast — it is the composition that has been causing concern.

The final reading saw exports down by 7 per cent even though imports tumbled practically 20 per cent, pointing to an accelerating weakness in both domestic and external economies.

Inflation (Wednesday) will not show an economy overheating certainly an additional unfavorable reading is probably.

Even more worrying the Producer Value Index (Wednesday) — which measures the change in rates of goods and services by makers and producers — is once more anticipated to be weak, down around 6 per cent over the year.

At the finish of the week, a mass of essential information will be released on Saturday.

Industrial production has been sliding, but still forecast to develop at about six per cent while fixed-asset investment — which gives insights into infrastructure and building pipelines — is slowing to a level final noticed 15 years ago.

Retail sales have been the a single shining light in China’s domestic economy and are once more expected to post a month-on-month development of around 11 per cent.

Diary notes


Job ads

Building index

Nov:  ANZ series, has been going up for a although

Nov: An AIG survey, expansion must continue

TuesdayNAB business surveyNov: Self-assurance and situations enhancing
WednesdayHousing financeOct: Figures have been dodge, but trend is owner occupiers up and investors down
Customer confidenceDec: Westpac survey. Has been getting stronger
ThursdayLabour market placeNov: May possibly payback some of October’s massive jump
FridayLending financeOct: consists of individual, enterprise and residence loans
Westpac AGMDiscussion on executive pay may be lively
MondayUS: Customer credit Oct: May ease back soon after solid number in September
TuesdayCH: TradeNov: Another massive surplus tipped but composition is the be concerned.
JP: GDPQ3: Final reading anticipated to confirm recession
EU: GDPQ3: Second estimate a weak 1.six per cent YoY
WednesdayCH: InflationNov: Most likely to have decreased MoM
ThursdayUK: BoE decisionPrices on hold at .5 per cent



CH: Economic indicatorsChina releases critical industrial production, fixed asset investment & retail data on Saturday

Topics: company-economics-and-finance, retail, markets, housing-business, australia

1st posted December 06, 2015 18:50:35

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